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| economy forecast |
When an economy forecast of a country is made, many variables
which could affect the economy of the country over a period
of years, is taken into consideration. One of the factors
which could most affect the economy is the political situation
in the country. Thus prediction on a country’s economy
are made taking all variables, like the politics of the
country, the world market condition, the value of the dollar,
fuel reserves etc into account. This in turn could lead
to slightly different forecasts of the economy by different
agencies.
While considering the economy forecast
of Ukraine we will take into account the reports of two
agencies. There might be a slight discrepancy between the
two, but both are of the opinion that Ukraine’s economy
will grow at a moderate pace.
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Initially we
will look into the forecast given by the Ministry of Finance
Ukraine. This forecast states that real GDP growth
will be 6.5% in 2007, will increase to 7.6% in 2008 and will
be 7% in 2009 and back to 6.5% in 2010. It also states that
inflation or Consumer Price Index (CPI) will
decrease from 107.5% in 2007 to 106.8% in 2008. It will further
decrease 105.7% and 105.5% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
The Producer Price index (PPI) is projected
to be 114.4% in 2007, 109.2% in 2008, 108.1% in 2009 and 107.8%
in 2010. This report indicates that Industrial Production
Growth which was 6.2% in 2006 would increase to 9%
in 2008 and then drop to 8.3% in 2009, further dropping to
7.7% in 2010. The Agricultural Output which
was 0.4% in 2006 would show a sharp increase to 5% in 2008
and then a further increase to 6.4% and 6.6% in 2009 and 2010
respectively. Balance of Goods and Services
would increase from 2,228 million USD in 2008 to 5,558 million
USD in 2010. Exports of Goods and Services
however, would not show much of a change from 2007 to 2010
and would stay around 112.7%. Imports of Goods and
Services, on the other hand, will see an increase
from 594.1% in 2007 to 708% in 2008, 820.4% in 2009 and 939.9%
in 2010. ››
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