The second report which forecasts the economy
of Ukraine is by the International Centre for Policy Studies
(ICPS). This report states that Ukraine’s economy
will grow significantly in 2007 and then slow down to a
moderate pace in 2008.This expects real GDP
to grow 85 in 2007, 6% in 2008 and 6% in 2009. They suggest
that an increase in GDP in 2007 is due to strong investments
and recovery of exports. It is also believed that the major
force behind this growth would be private consumption which
would increase due to increase in real salary. They predict
that in 2008, it will be the investments which bring about
GDP growth. Gross Accumulation of Fixed Assets
(GAFA) will grow 22%, 14% and 10% in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Contribution of Foreign Trade to GDP will
be negative, as the growth of exports will be lower than
imports. Trade deficits will therefore
increase. Trade deficit will be 4.6% of GDP in 2007, 6.9%
and 8.9% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Exports
of goods will show an increase of 16%, 12% and
10% in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively. Imports
of goods over the same periods will grow 20%, 18%
and 16%. Inflation though low in the start
of 2007 will show an increase over the years. By the end
of 2007 CPI will have grown 9%. Consumer
prices will grow 8% in 2008 and 6% in 2009.